SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 85.62%. A draw had a probability of 9.6% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 4.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 3-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.55%) and 4-0 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.48%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 1-2 (1.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Gil Vicente |
85.62% ( -0.06) | 9.65% ( 0.03) | 4.72% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 47.31% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 74.44% ( -0.06) | 25.56% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 54.36% ( -0.07) | 45.64% ( 0.07) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 95.94% ( -0.02) | 4.06% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 82.94% ( -0.06) | 17.06% ( 0.06) |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.31% ( 0.05) | 50.68% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 14.87% ( 0.04) | 85.12% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Porto | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 3-0 @ 11.28% 2-0 @ 10.55% 4-0 @ 9.04% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 7.67% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 7.18% ( 0.02)1-0 @ 6.59% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 6.14% ( -0)5-0 @ 5.79% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 3.94% ( -0.01)6-0 @ 3.09% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.61% ( 0.01)6-1 @ 2.1% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 2.09% ( 0)7-0 @ 1.42% ( -0.01)5-2 @ 1.34% ( -0)7-1 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.85% Total : 85.62% | 1-1 @ 4.48% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 2.44% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 2.06% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.68% Total : 9.65% | 1-2 @ 1.52% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 1.4% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.81% Total : 4.72% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 28 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 68 | 17 | 51 | 71 |
| 2 | Porto | 28 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 60 | 19 | 41 | 67 |
| 3 | Braga | 28 | 21 | 2 | 5 | 61 | 24 | 37 | 65 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 27 | 18 | 3 | 6 | 56 | 26 | 30 | 57 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 44 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 41 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 28 | 12 | 3 | 13 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 39 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 39 |
| 9 | Vizela | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 31 | 28 | 3 | 38 |
| 10 | ChavesChaves | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 28 | 33 | -5 | 36 |
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 35 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 33 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 26 | 33 | -7 | 31 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 28 | 9 | 3 | 16 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 30 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 28 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 23 | 44 | -21 | 25 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 24 | 51 | -27 | 22 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 28 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 21 | 49 | -28 | 17 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 28 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 15 |
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