SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 42.12%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 31.59% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.78%) and 0-2 (7.44%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 (8.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Porto in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Porto.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Porto |
31.59% ( -0.32) | 26.29% ( -0.1) | 42.12% ( 0.44) |
| Both teams to score 52.24% ( 0.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.73% ( 0.34) | 52.27% ( -0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.03% ( 0.29) | 73.97% ( -0.29) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.26% ( -0.05) | 30.75% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.99% ( -0.06) | 67.01% ( 0.06) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.43% ( 0.38) | 24.57% ( -0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.95% ( 0.52) | 59.06% ( -0.52) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Porto |
| 1-0 @ 8.91% ( -0.13) 2-1 @ 7.37% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 5.25% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 2.9% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.07% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.04% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.06% Total : 31.59% | 1-1 @ 12.5% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 7.55% ( -0.1)2-2 @ 5.18% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.29% | 0-1 @ 10.6% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 8.78% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 7.44% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 4.11% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 3.48% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 2.42% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 1.44% ( 0.04)0-4 @ 1.22% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.62% Total : 42.11% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 26 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 67 | 14 | 53 | 71 |
| 2 | Porto | 26 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 56 | 17 | 39 | 61 |
| 3 | Braga | 26 | 19 | 2 | 5 | 56 | 23 | 33 | 59 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 26 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 52 | 23 | 29 | 54 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 30 | 32 | -2 | 41 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 41 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 38 |
| 8 | Vizela | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 35 |
| 9 | Rio AveRio Ave | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 33 |
| 10 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 26 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 33 |
| 11 | ChavesChaves | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 32 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 30 | 44 | -14 | 30 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 30 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 26 | 8 | 2 | 16 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 26 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 22 | 39 | -17 | 25 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 26 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 21 | 49 | -28 | 19 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 17 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 26 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 17 | 41 | -24 | 15 |
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