SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Porto | 2 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | Benfica | 2 | 5 | 6 |
| 3 | Boavista | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | Braga | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 6 | Sporting Lisbon | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | Estoril Praia | 3 | 1 | 4 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 50.15%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 26.77% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.42%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 (6.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
50.15% ( -1.21) | 23.08% ( 0.3) | 26.77% ( 0.91) |
| Both teams to score 59.86% ( -0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.11% ( -0.62) | 40.89% ( 0.62) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.72% ( -0.63) | 63.27% ( 0.63) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.53% ( -0.66) | 16.47% ( 0.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 53.83% ( -1.2) | 46.17% ( 1.2) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.66% ( 0.35) | 28.34% ( -0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.92% ( 0.44) | 64.08% ( -0.44) |
| Score Analysis |
| Porto | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 2-1 @ 9.57% ( -0.06) 1-0 @ 8.42% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 7.59% ( -0.13)3-1 @ 5.76% ( -0.17)3-0 @ 4.57% ( -0.18)3-2 @ 3.63% ( -0.07)4-1 @ 2.6% ( -0.14)4-0 @ 2.06% ( -0.13)4-2 @ 1.64% ( -0.07)5-1 @ 0.94% ( -0.07)Other @ 3.39% Total : 50.15% | 1-1 @ 10.61% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 6.04% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 4.67% ( 0.13)3-3 @ 1.53% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.24% Total : 23.08% | 1-2 @ 6.69% ( 0.17) 0-1 @ 5.88% ( 0.22)0-2 @ 3.71% ( 0.17)1-3 @ 2.81% ( 0.1)2-3 @ 2.54% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.09)Other @ 3.57% Total : 26.77% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 20 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 51 | 12 | 39 | 53 |
| 2 | Porto | 20 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 47 | 12 | 35 | 48 |
| 3 | Braga | 20 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 45 | 20 | 25 | 46 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 38 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 33 |
| 6 | Casa Pia | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 30 |
| 7 | AroucaArouca | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 30 |
| 8 | ChavesChaves | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 26 |
| 9 | Vizela | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 25 |
| 10 | BoavistaBoavista | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 25 |
| 11 | PortimonensePortimonense | 20 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 23 |
| 12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 22 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 27 | -7 | 22 |
| 14 | Rio AveRio Ave | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 21 |
| 15 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 21 |
| 16 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 20 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 15 |
| 17 | Maritimo | 20 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 37 | -24 | 13 |
| 18 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 20 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 36 | -24 | 9 |
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