SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Porto | 34 | 64 | 91 |
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 47 | 82 |
| 3 | Benfica | 33 | 47 | 71 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Vitoria de Guimaraes | 33 | 4 | 45 |
| 7 | Santa Clara | 34 | -16 | 40 |
| 8 | Maritimo | 33 | -3 | 38 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 75.34%. A draw had a probability of 15.8% and a win for Santa Clara had a probability of 8.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.69%) and 3-0 (10.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.5%), while for a Santa Clara win it was 0-1 (3.1%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Santa Clara |
75.34% ( 1.28) | 15.77% ( -0.5) | 8.89% ( -0.78) |
| Both teams to score 45.9% ( -1.54) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.26% ( -0.24) | 39.73% ( 0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.91% ( -0.24) | 62.09% ( 0.24) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.07% ( 0.24) | 8.92% ( -0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 69.51% ( 0.57) | 30.49% ( -0.57) |
| Santa Clara Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.4% ( -1.83) | 49.6% ( 1.83) |
