SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Porto | 34 | 64 | 91 |
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 47 | 82 |
| 3 | Benfica | 33 | 47 | 71 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Famalicao | 33 | -7 | 36 |
| 13 | Estoril Praia | 33 | -9 | 36 |
| 14 | Vizela | 33 | -18 | 33 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 83.4%. A draw had a probability of 11.6% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 5.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.74%) and 1-0 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.5%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 0-1 (1.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Porto in this match.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Estoril Praia |
83.4% ( 2.31) | 11.58% ( -1.22) | 5.02% ( -1.08) |
| Both teams to score 39.97% ( -2.48) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.76% ( 0.96) | 35.25% ( -0.96) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.74% ( 1.07) | 57.26% ( -1.07) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.8% ( 0.66) | 6.21% ( -0.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 76.54% ( 1.8) | 23.46% ( -1.8) |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 42.62% ( -2.96) | 57.38% ( 2.97) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 10.75% ( -1.72) | 89.26% ( 1.73) |
| Score Analysis |
| Porto | Draw | Estoril Praia |
| 2-0 @ 13.75% ( 0.35) 3-0 @ 12.74% ( 0.77)1-0 @ 9.9% ( -0.1)4-0 @ 8.86% ( 0.84)2-1 @ 7.64% ( -0.52)3-1 @ 7.08% ( -0.21)5-0 @ 4.92% ( 0.63)4-1 @ 4.92% ( 0.04)5-1 @ 2.74% ( 0.12)6-0 @ 2.28% ( 0.36)3-2 @ 1.97% ( -0.25)4-2 @ 1.37% ( -0.12)6-1 @ 1.27% ( 0.1)7-0 @ 0.91% ( 0.17)Other @ 3.05% Total : 83.39% | 1-1 @ 5.5% ( -0.59) 0-0 @ 3.56% ( -0.17)2-2 @ 2.12% ( -0.36)Other @ 0.4% Total : 11.58% | 0-1 @ 1.98% ( -0.3) 1-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.33)Other @ 1.51% Total : 5.02% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 16 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 17 | 20 | 40 |
| 2 | Benfica | 16 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 10 | 21 | 39 |
| 3 | Porto | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 35 |
| 4 | Braga | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 40 | 23 | 17 | 33 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 18 | 8 | 30 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 26 |
| 7 | SC FarenseFarense | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 21 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 19 |
| 9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 19 |
| 10 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 17 |
| 11 | Estrela Amadora | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 17 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 30 | -8 | 17 |
| 13 | AroucaArouca | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 16 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 15 |
| 15 | Rio AveRio Ave | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 15 |
| 16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 36 | -19 | 15 |
| 17 | Vizela | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 13 |
| 18 | ChavesChaves | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 11 |
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