SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 76.6%. A draw had a probability of 15.8% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 7.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.64%) and 3-0 (11.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.4%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (3.18%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Arouca |
76.6% ( -0.02) | 15.77% ( 0) | 7.62% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 39.98% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.68% ( 0.02) | 44.32% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.31% ( 0.02) | 66.69% ( -0.02) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.24% ( -0) | 9.76% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 67.53% ( -0) | 32.47% ( 0) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 44.3% ( 0.04) | 55.7% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 11.71% ( 0.03) | 88.29% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Porto | Draw | Arouca |
| 2-0 @ 14.71% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 12.64% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 11.41% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 8.61% ( 0)3-1 @ 6.68% ( 0)4-0 @ 6.64% ( -0)4-1 @ 3.89% ( 0)5-0 @ 3.09% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.96% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.81% ( 0)6-0 @ 1.2% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.14% ( 0)Other @ 2.81% Total : 76.58% | 1-1 @ 7.4% ( 0) 0-0 @ 5.44% ( -0)2-2 @ 2.52% ( 0)Other @ 0.42% Total : 15.77% | 0-1 @ 3.18% ( 0) 1-2 @ 2.17% ( 0)0-2 @ 0.93% ( 0)Other @ 1.35% Total : 7.62% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 31 | 26 | 2 | 3 | 72 | 17 | 55 | 80 |
| 2 | Porto | 30 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 63 | 19 | 44 | 73 |
| 3 | Braga | 31 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 66 | 26 | 40 | 71 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 21 | 4 | 6 | 65 | 28 | 37 | 67 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 48 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 47 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 30 | 13 | 3 | 14 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 42 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 40 |
| 9 | ChavesChaves | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 40 |
| 10 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 40 |
| 11 | Vizela | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 39 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 10 | 4 | 17 | 24 | 40 | -16 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 28 | 39 | -11 | 31 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 28 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 31 | 6 | 5 | 20 | 29 | 58 | -29 | 23 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 31 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 23 | 56 | -33 | 20 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 31 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 22 | 50 | -28 | 19 |
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