Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 72.27%. A draw had a probability of 16.3% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 11.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.4%) and 3-0 (8.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.56%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-2 (3.36%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
