SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 40.33%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 31.58% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (7.67%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (10.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Arouca |
40.33% ( -0.56) | 28.1% ( -0.09) | 31.58% ( 0.65) |
| Both teams to score 46.83% ( 0.46) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.86% ( 0.47) | 59.14% ( -0.47) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.43% ( 0.37) | 79.58% ( -0.36) |
| Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.29% ( -0.09) | 28.72% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 35.46% ( -0.11) | 64.55% ( 0.11) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.7% ( 0.73) | 34.31% ( -0.73) |
