SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 11 | Chaves | 7 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Arouca | 6 | -9 | 7 |
| 13 | Rio Ave | 7 | -3 | 6 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Sporting Lisbon | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Vitoria de Guimaraes | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Gil Vicente | 7 | -1 | 9 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 35.39%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 34.71% and a draw had a probability of 29.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.15%) and 2-0 (6.83%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 (12.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
35.39% ( -0.03) | 29.9% ( 0.06) | 34.71% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 42.41% ( -0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.22% ( -0.19) | 64.77% ( 0.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.27% ( -0.13) | 83.73% ( 0.13) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.35% ( -0.12) | 34.64% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.63% ( -0.13) | 71.37% ( 0.13) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.9% ( -0.12) | 35.1% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.15% ( -0.12) | 71.85% ( 0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 1-0 @ 12.89% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 7.15% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 6.83% ( 0)3-1 @ 2.53% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.41% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.25% Total : 35.39% | 1-1 @ 13.49% 0-0 @ 12.16% ( 0.09)2-2 @ 3.74% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.5% Total : 29.89% | 0-1 @ 12.73% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 7.07% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 6.67% ( 0)1-3 @ 2.47% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.33% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.31% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.16% Total : 34.71% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 23 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 58 | 13 | 45 | 62 |
| 2 | Porto | 24 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 55 | 17 | 38 | 57 |
| 3 | Braga | 23 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 50 | 22 | 28 | 52 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 23 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 46 | 23 | 23 | 47 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 40 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 37 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 35 |
| 8 | BoavistaBoavista | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 35 | -8 | 30 |
| 9 | Vizela | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 26 | 23 | 3 | 29 |
| 10 | Gil Vicente | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 29 |
| 11 | ChavesChaves | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 29 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 27 |
| 13 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 27 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 24 | 8 | 2 | 14 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 26 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 24 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 22 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 23 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 17 | 42 | -25 | 16 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 24 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 18 | 42 | -24 | 15 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 17 | 36 | -19 | 15 |
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