Vitoria de Guimaraes will be looking to restore some pride after their shocking defeat at the hands of rock-bottom Belenenses last time out. They will fancy their chances against an out-of-sorts Arouca side who have managed just one win from their last 10 outings in all competitions. The hosts are also unbeaten in each of their last 10 encounters with the Arouquenses and we are backing them to extend their dominance and bounce back to winning ways this weekend.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 51.23%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 24.56% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.64%) and 2-0 (8.88%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (6.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.
