SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Vitoria de Guimaraes | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Arouca | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | Boavista | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Portimonense | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Braga | 3 | 8 | 7 |
| 5 | Estoril Praia | 4 | 4 | 7 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 49.29%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 24.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.4%) and 1-2 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.29%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (8.18%). The actual scoreline of 0-6 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Braga |
24.73% ( 0.11) | 25.98% ( 0.1) | 49.29% ( -0.21) |
| Both teams to score 48.67% ( -0.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.27% ( -0.29) | 54.73% ( 0.29) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.95% ( -0.24) | 76.04% ( 0.24) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.58% ( -0.06) | 37.41% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 25.8% ( -0.06) | 74.2% ( 0.06) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.76% ( -0.21) | 22.24% ( 0.21) |
