SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 11 | Pacos de Ferreira | 34 | -15 | 38 |
| 12 | Famalicao | 33 | -7 | 36 |
| 13 | Estoril Praia | 33 | -9 | 36 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Benfica | 33 | 47 | 71 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 62 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 10 | 51 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 37.43%. A win for Braga had a probability of 35.34% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.09%) and 2-0 (6.69%). The likeliest Braga win was 0-1 (10.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Famalicao | Draw | Braga |
37.43% ( 0.71) | 27.23% ( -0.03) | 35.34% ( -0.68) |
| Both teams to score 50.14% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.67% ( 0.08) | 55.33% ( -0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.46% ( 0.07) | 76.54% ( -0.07) |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.45% ( 0.47) | 28.55% ( -0.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 35.66% ( 0.58) | 64.34% ( -0.58) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.17% ( -0.38) | 29.83% ( 0.38) |
