SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Vizela | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Portimonense | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Boavista | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Vitoria de Guimaraes | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Arouca | 3 | -2 | 6 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 37.71%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 32.22% and a draw had a probability of 30.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.47%) and 2-1 (7.37%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 (12.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Portimonense would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Portimonense | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
37.71% ( 0.25) | 30.07% ( 0.5) | 32.22% ( -0.75) |
| Both teams to score 41.7% ( -1.41) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.5% ( -1.64) | 65.5% ( 1.64) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.76% ( -1.15) | 84.24% ( 1.15) |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.49% ( -0.7) | 33.5% ( 0.7) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 29.85% ( -0.78) | 70.14% ( 0.77) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.72% ( -1.45) | 37.28% ( 1.45) |
