SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Santa Clara | 34 | -16 | 40 |
| 8 | Maritimo | 33 | -3 | 38 |
| 9 | Boavista | 34 | -13 | 38 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Boavista | 34 | -13 | 38 |
| 10 | Portimonense | 34 | -14 | 38 |
| 11 | Pacos de Ferreira | 34 | -15 | 38 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 52.61%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 22.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.63%) and 2-0 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.62%), while for a Portimonense win it was 0-1 (7.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Maritimo | Draw | Portimonense |
52.61% ( -0.06) | 24.43% ( 0.04) | 22.96% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 51.37% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.77% ( -0.11) | 50.23% ( 0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.82% ( -0.1) | 72.18% ( 0.1) |
| Maritimo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.95% ( -0.06) | 19.05% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 49.36% ( -0.11) | 50.64% ( 0.11) |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.46% ( -0.04) | 36.53% ( 0.04) |
