SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 6 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Santa Clara | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Famalicao | 6 | -6 | 4 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 16 | Famalicao | 6 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Pacos de Ferreira | 6 | -10 | 0 |
| 18 | Maritimo | 6 | -13 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santa Clara win with a probability of 55.77%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 18.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santa Clara win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.76%) and 2-1 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.74%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 0-1 (7.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Santa Clara | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
55.77% ( -0.36) | 25.59% ( 0.26) | 18.64% ( 0.09) |
| Both teams to score 42.36% ( -0.52) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.92% ( -0.77) | 59.07% ( 0.77) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.47% ( -0.6) | 79.53% ( 0.6) |
| Santa Clara Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.72% ( -0.46) | 21.28% ( 0.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 45.8% ( -0.71) | 54.2% ( 0.71) |
| Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.81% ( -0.34) | 46.19% ( 0.34) |
