SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | Estoril Praia | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Boavista | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Vizela | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Santa Clara | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 2 | -1 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boavista win with a probability of 44.55%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 28.02% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boavista win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.69%) and 2-0 (8.61%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 0-1 (9.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Boavista would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Boavista | Draw | Santa Clara |
44.55% ( 0.02) | 27.43% ( 0.04) | 28.02% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 47.08% ( -0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.96% ( -0.19) | 58.04% ( 0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.28% ( -0.15) | 78.72% ( 0.15) |
| Boavista Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.07% ( -0.08) | 25.93% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 39.07% ( -0.11) | 60.93% ( 0.1) |
| Santa Clara Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.56% ( -0.15) | 36.44% ( 0.15) |
