SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 16 | Famalicao | 6 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Pacos de Ferreira | 5 | -9 | 0 |
| 18 | Maritimo | 5 | -12 | 0 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Boavista | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Chaves | 6 | -1 | 8 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 41.85%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 31.29% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.65%) and 2-0 (7.62%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (9.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.74%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Casa Pia |
41.85% ( 0.07) | 26.86% ( 0.07) | 31.29% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 50.37% ( -0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.39% ( -0.32) | 54.61% ( 0.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.05% ( -0.27) | 75.95% ( 0.27) |
| Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.24% ( -0.11) | 25.76% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 39.3% ( -0.15) | 60.7% ( 0.15) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.85% ( -0.26) | 32.16% ( 0.26) |
