SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Sporting Lisbon | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Santa Clara | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Porto | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 3 | Benfica | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | Estoril Praia | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 67.55%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 13.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.46%) and 1-2 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.21%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 1-0 (4.36%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Casa Pia | Draw | Benfica |
13.1% ( -0.02) | 19.35% ( -0) | 67.55% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 48.5% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.69% ( -0.01) | 44.31% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.31% ( -0.01) | 66.69% ( 0.01) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.2% ( -0.03) | 44.8% ( 0.02) |
