SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 14 | Santa Clara | 3 | -2 | 1 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Benfica | 2 | 5 | 6 |
| 3 | Boavista | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Vitoria de Guimaraes | 2 | 2 | 6 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 37.04%. A win for Boavista had a probability of 34.44% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.74%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Boavista win was 0-1 (11.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Casa Pia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Casa Pia | Draw | Boavista |
37.04% ( 4.38) | 28.52% ( 0.96) | 34.44% ( -5.34) |
| Both teams to score 46.19% ( -2.5) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.8% ( -3.26) | 60.2% ( 3.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.61% ( -2.54) | 80.39% ( 2.54) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.8% ( 1.21) | 31.19% ( -1.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 32.47% ( 1.38) | 67.53% ( -1.38) |
| Boavista Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.13% ( -4.9) | 32.87% ( 4.9) |
