SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 37.72%. A win for Famalicao had a probability of 32.22% and a draw had a probability of 30.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.47%) and 2-1 (7.37%). The likeliest Famalicao win was 0-1 (12.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.47%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Famalicao |
37.72% ( 1.07) | 30.06% ( -0.37) | 32.22% ( -0.7) |
| Both teams to score 41.72% ( 0.82) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.51% ( 1.03) | 65.49% ( -1.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.77% ( 0.71) | 84.23% ( -0.7) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.5% ( 1.24) | 33.5% ( -1.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 29.87% ( 1.34) | 70.13% ( -1.33) |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.73% ( 0.06) | 37.27% ( -0.06) |
