SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Vizela | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Santa Clara | 3 | -2 | 1 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 16 | Pacos de Ferreira | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 17 | Famalicao | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 18 | Maritimo | 3 | -10 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 57.11%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Famalicao had a probability of 18.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.55%) and 2-1 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.45%), while for a Famalicao win it was 0-1 (6.96%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Famalicao |
57.11% ( 3.45) | 24.45% ( -0.75) | 18.44% ( -2.69) |
| Both teams to score 45% ( -1.85) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.62% ( -0.34) | 55.38% ( 0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.42% ( -0.27) | 76.59% ( 0.28) |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.72% ( 1.23) | 19.29% ( -1.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 48.97% ( 1.99) | 51.03% ( -1.98) |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.75% ( -3.19) | 44.25% ( 3.2) |
