SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Estoril Praia | 7 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 6 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Sporting Lisbon | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 15 | Santa Clara | 7 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Famalicao | 6 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Pacos de Ferreira | 7 | -10 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 35.6%. A win for Famalicao had a probability of 34.73% and a draw had a probability of 29.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.25%) and 2-0 (6.85%). The likeliest Famalicao win was 0-1 (12.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Casa Pia in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Casa Pia.
| Result | ||
| Casa Pia | Draw | Famalicao |
35.6% ( 2.15) | 29.67% ( 1.02) | 34.73% ( -3.16) |
| Both teams to score 43.03% ( -2.67) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.95% ( -3.29) | 64.05% ( 3.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.78% ( -2.41) | 83.22% ( 2.41) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.89% ( -0.28) | 34.11% ( 0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 29.2% ( -0.3) | 70.8% ( 0.3) |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.3% ( -3.75) | 34.7% ( 3.76) |
