Basso (66' pen.), Miguel Pereira Da Silva (89') Manuel da Silva Moreira (57'), Miguel Pereira Da Silva (77'), Correa dos Santos (90+2'), Filipe Alves Araujo (90+5')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Rodrigues (23') Jose Gomes Oliveira Tavares (31'), Batubinsika (47'), Miguel Lapa Ricardo (79'), Assuncao (90+3')
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 37.55%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 34.03% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.83%) and 0-2 (7.06%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (11.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.
