SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 68.38%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 11.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (14.49%) and 0-3 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.39%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 1-0 (4.88%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Casa Pia | Draw | Porto |
11.17% ( -0.97) | 20.44% ( -0.93) | 68.38% ( 1.9) |
| Both teams to score 39.59% ( -0.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.8% ( 1.32) | 53.2% ( -1.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.23% ( 1.11) | 74.76% ( -1.11) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 46.36% ( -0.93) | 53.63% ( 0.93) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 12.95% ( -0.59) | 87.04% ( 0.58) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.38% ( 1.04) | 14.61% ( -1.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 57.28% ( 1.97) | 42.71% ( -1.97) |
| Score Analysis |
| Casa Pia | Draw | Porto |
| 1-0 @ 4.88% ( -0.4) 2-1 @ 2.93% ( -0.21)2-0 @ 1.52% ( -0.17)Other @ 1.84% Total : 11.17% | 1-1 @ 9.39% ( -0.41) 0-0 @ 7.84% ( -0.41)2-2 @ 2.81% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.4% Total : 20.44% | 0-1 @ 15.07% ( -0.23) 0-2 @ 14.49% ( 0.31)0-3 @ 9.29% ( 0.52)1-2 @ 9.03% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 5.79% ( 0.17)0-4 @ 4.47% ( 0.4)1-4 @ 2.78% ( 0.18)2-3 @ 1.8% ( 0.01)0-5 @ 1.72% ( 0.21)1-5 @ 1.07% ( 0.11)Other @ 2.85% Total : 68.37% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 32 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 77 | 18 | 59 | 83 |
| 2 | Porto | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 64 | 19 | 45 | 76 |
| 3 | Braga | 31 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 66 | 26 | 40 | 71 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 67 | 29 | 38 | 70 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 15 | 5 | 12 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 50 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 48 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 32 | 13 | 4 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 43 |
| 9 | Vizela | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 40 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 40 |
| 11 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 32 | 10 | 4 | 18 | 25 | 45 | -20 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 34 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 28 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 32 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 30 | 60 | -30 | 23 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 23 | 58 | -35 | 20 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 31 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 22 | 50 | -28 | 19 |
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