SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 47.52%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 27.07% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 1-0 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.31%) and 2-0 (8.48%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (7.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Casa Pia in this match.
| Result | ||
| Portimonense | Draw | Casa Pia |
47.52% ( 0.6) | 25.41% ( -0.14) | 27.07% ( -0.46) |
| Both teams to score 52.38% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.14% ( 0.27) | 50.86% ( -0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.26% ( 0.24) | 72.74% ( -0.24) |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.59% ( 0.38) | 21.41% ( -0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.59% ( 0.59) | 54.41% ( -0.59) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.65% ( -0.22) | 33.35% ( 0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.02% ( -0.24) | 69.97% ( 0.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Portimonense | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 1-0 @ 11% 2-1 @ 9.31% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 8.48% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 4.79% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 4.36% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 2.63% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.84% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 1.68% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 1.01% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.42% Total : 47.52% | 1-1 @ 12.08% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 7.14% ( -0.08)2-2 @ 5.11% 3-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.41% | 0-1 @ 7.84% ( -0.14) 1-2 @ 6.64% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 4.31% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 2.43% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.87% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.58% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.41% Total : 27.07% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 30 | 25 | 2 | 3 | 71 | 17 | 54 | 77 |
| 2 | Porto | 30 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 63 | 19 | 44 | 73 |
| 3 | Braga | 30 | 23 | 2 | 5 | 66 | 25 | 41 | 71 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 30 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 61 | 28 | 33 | 64 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 48 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 30 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 44 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 30 | 13 | 3 | 14 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 42 |
| 8 | ChavesChaves | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 40 |
| 9 | Vizela | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 33 | 32 | 1 | 39 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 27 | 34 | -7 | 39 |
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 38 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 37 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 30 | 10 | 3 | 17 | 23 | 39 | -16 | 33 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 31 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 30 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 26 | 45 | -19 | 28 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 27 | 56 | -29 | 22 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 30 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 23 | 52 | -29 | 20 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 30 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 19 | 48 | -29 | 16 |
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