SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 40.05%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 32.67% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (7.33%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (9.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Casa Pia in this match.
| Result | ||
| Maritimo | Draw | Casa Pia |
40.05% ( 0.13) | 27.28% ( -0.06) | 32.67% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 49.52% ( 0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.1% ( 0.21) | 55.9% ( -0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23% ( 0.17) | 77.01% ( -0.17) |
| Maritimo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.67% ( 0.17) | 27.33% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.22% ( 0.22) | 62.78% ( -0.22) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.15% ( 0.06) | 31.86% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.7% ( 0.07) | 68.3% ( -0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Maritimo | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 1-0 @ 11.29% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 8.38% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 7.33% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.62% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 3.17% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.07% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.18% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.03% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.98% Total : 40.04% | 1-1 @ 12.91% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 8.71% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 4.79% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.87% Total : 27.28% | 0-1 @ 9.96% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 7.39% ( -0)0-2 @ 5.7% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 2.82% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.17% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.83% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.81% Total : 32.67% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 25 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 66 | 14 | 52 | 68 |
| 2 | Porto | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 55 | 17 | 38 | 58 |
| 3 | Braga | 25 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 56 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 49 | 23 | 26 | 50 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 40 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 38 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 38 |
| 8 | Rio AveRio Ave | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 33 |
| 9 | Vizela | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 32 |
| 10 | ChavesChaves | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 32 |
| 11 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 30 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 30 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 29 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 18 | 32 | -14 | 26 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 21 | 39 | -18 | 22 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 47 | -30 | 16 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 16 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 25 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 38 | -21 | 15 |
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