SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 6 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Braga | 6 | 16 | 16 |
| 3 | Porto | 7 | 11 | 16 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 16 | Famalicao | 6 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Pacos de Ferreira | 7 | -10 | 1 |
| 18 | Maritimo | 6 | -13 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 81.28%. A draw had a probability of 12.5% and a win for Maritimo had a probability of 6.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.68%) and 1-0 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.96%), while for a Maritimo win it was 0-1 (2.17%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Maritimo |
81.28% ( 0.12) | 12.54% ( 0.12) | 6.18% ( -0.24) |
| Both teams to score 44.17% ( -2.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.65% ( -1.81) | 34.35% ( 1.81) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.74% ( -2.07) | 56.26% ( 2.07) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.55% ( -0.34) | 6.44% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 75.89% ( -0.95) | 24.11% ( 0.96) |
| Maritimo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 47.21% ( -2.07) | 52.79% ( 2.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 13.48% ( -1.36) | 86.52% ( 1.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Maritimo |
| 2-0 @ 12.78% ( 0.68) 3-0 @ 11.68% ( 0.4)1-0 @ 9.33% ( 0.68)2-1 @ 8.17% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 8.01% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 7.47% ( -0.19)4-1 @ 5.12% ( -0.24)5-0 @ 4.39% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 2.81% ( -0.19)3-2 @ 2.39% ( -0.21)6-0 @ 2.01% ( -0.05)4-2 @ 1.64% ( -0.18)6-1 @ 1.28% ( -0.11)Other @ 4.19% Total : 81.26% | 1-1 @ 5.96% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 3.4% ( 0.31)2-2 @ 2.61% ( -0.18)Other @ 0.57% Total : 12.54% | 0-1 @ 2.17% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 1.9% ( -0.09)Other @ 2.11% Total : 6.18% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 61 | 13 | 48 | 65 |
| 2 | Porto | 24 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 55 | 17 | 38 | 57 |
| 3 | Braga | 24 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 55 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 49 | 23 | 26 | 50 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 40 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 37 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 35 |
| 8 | Rio AveRio Ave | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 30 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 30 |
| 10 | Vizela | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 27 | -1 | 29 |
| 11 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 29 |
| 12 | ChavesChaves | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 29 |
| 13 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 27 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 24 | 8 | 2 | 14 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 26 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 24 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 22 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 24 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 17 | 45 | -28 | 16 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 24 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 18 | 42 | -24 | 15 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 17 | 36 | -19 | 15 |
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