SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 75.06%. A draw had a probability of 16% and a win for Vizela had a probability of 8.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.17%) and 3-0 (10.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.63%), while for a Vizela win it was 0-1 (3.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Vizela |
75.06% ( 0.56) | 16.05% ( -0.3) | 8.89% ( -0.26) |
| Both teams to score 44.88% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.92% ( 0.52) | 41.08% ( -0.52) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.53% ( 0.53) | 63.47% ( -0.53) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.67% ( 0.27) | 9.32% ( -0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 68.55% ( 0.63) | 31.44% ( -0.63) |
| Vizela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.49% ( -0.23) | 50.5% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 14.99% ( -0.15) | 85% ( 0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Vizela |
| 2-0 @ 13.25% 1-0 @ 11.17% ( -0.13)3-0 @ 10.48% ( 0.13)2-1 @ 9.05% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 7.16% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 6.22% ( 0.15)4-1 @ 4.25% ( 0.07)5-0 @ 2.95% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 2.45% ( -0)5-1 @ 2.02% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 1.45% ( 0.02)6-0 @ 1.17% ( 0.05)Other @ 3.44% Total : 75.05% | 1-1 @ 7.63% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 4.71% ( -0.11)2-2 @ 3.09% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.62% Total : 16.05% | 0-1 @ 3.22% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 2.61% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.97% Total : 8.89% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 33 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 79 | 20 | 59 | 84 |
| 2 | Porto | 33 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 70 | 22 | 48 | 82 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 69 | 31 | 38 | 71 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 16 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 53 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 51 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 13 | 4 | 16 | 37 | 45 | -8 | 43 |
| 9 | Casa Pia | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 41 |
| 10 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 39 | 53 | -14 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 33 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 10 | 4 | 19 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 31 | 41 | -10 | 34 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 30 | 48 | -18 | 32 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 33 | 7 | 5 | 21 | 31 | 60 | -29 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 33 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 22 |
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