SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 75.01%. A draw had a probability of 16.2% and a win for Famalicao had a probability of 8.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.73%) and 3-0 (10.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.71%), while for a Famalicao win it was 0-1 (3.31%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Famalicao |
75.01% ( -0.44) | 16.25% ( 0.26) | 8.74% ( 0.17) |
| Both teams to score 43.49% ( -0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.44% ( -0.65) | 42.55% ( 0.65) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.04% ( -0.65) | 64.95% ( 0.65) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.29% ( -0.27) | 9.7% ( 0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 67.65% ( -0.63) | 32.34% ( 0.63) |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.16% ( -0.04) | 51.83% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 14.1% ( -0.02) | 85.89% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Porto | Draw | Famalicao |
| 2-0 @ 13.68% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 11.73% ( 0.2)3-0 @ 10.64% ( -0.07)2-1 @ 8.99% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 6.99% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 6.21% ( -0.12)4-1 @ 4.08% ( -0.08)5-0 @ 2.9% ( -0.09)3-2 @ 2.3% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.9% ( -0.06)4-2 @ 1.34% ( -0.03)6-0 @ 1.13% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.12% Total : 75% | 1-1 @ 7.71% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 5.03% ( 0.14)2-2 @ 2.96% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.55% Total : 16.25% | 0-1 @ 3.31% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 2.53% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 1.09% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.81% Total : 8.74% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 32 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 77 | 18 | 59 | 83 |
| 2 | Porto | 32 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 66 | 20 | 46 | 79 |
| 3 | Braga | 32 | 24 | 2 | 6 | 71 | 29 | 42 | 74 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 67 | 29 | 38 | 70 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 51 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 15 | 5 | 12 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 50 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 32 | 13 | 4 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 43 |
| 9 | Vizela | 33 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 40 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 40 |
| 11 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 10 | 4 | 19 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 34 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 32 | 9 | 4 | 19 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 31 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 33 | 7 | 5 | 21 | 31 | 60 | -29 | 26 |
| 17 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 33 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 22 |
| 18 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 23 | 58 | -35 | 20 |
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