SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 45.81%. A draw had a probability of 28.4% and a win for Famalicao had a probability of 25.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.37%) and 2-1 (8.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.96%), while for a Famalicao win it was 0-1 (9.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Famalicao |
45.81% ( 1.17) | 28.39% ( 0.18) | 25.79% ( -1.35) |
| Both teams to score 43.09% ( -1.36) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.63% ( -1.26) | 62.37% ( 1.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.99% ( -0.93) | 82.01% ( 0.93) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.7% ( 0.01) | 27.3% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 37.26% ( 0.02) | 62.74% ( -0.01) |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.26% ( -1.88) | 40.74% ( 1.88) |
