SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 48.46%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 25.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.3%) and 2-1 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.42%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 0-1 (8.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
48.46% ( -0.07) | 26.3% ( 0) | 25.23% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 48.2% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.43% ( 0.03) | 55.57% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.26% ( 0.02) | 76.74% ( -0.03) |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.04% ( -0.02) | 22.96% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.25% ( -0.03) | 56.75% ( 0.02) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.56% ( 0.07) | 37.44% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.78% ( 0.07) | 74.22% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 1-0 @ 12.64% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 9.3% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 9.14% ( -0)3-0 @ 4.56% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 4.48% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.2% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.68% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.65% ( -0)Other @ 2.79% Total : 48.46% | 1-1 @ 12.42% 0-0 @ 8.6% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 4.49% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.79% Total : 26.3% | 0-1 @ 8.45% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.11% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.15% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.47% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.7% Total : 25.23% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 32 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 77 | 18 | 59 | 83 |
| 2 | Porto | 33 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 70 | 22 | 48 | 82 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 67 | 29 | 38 | 70 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 51 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 15 | 5 | 12 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 50 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 13 | 4 | 16 | 37 | 45 | -8 | 43 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 39 | 53 | -14 | 41 |
| 10 | Vizela | 33 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 40 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 10 | 4 | 19 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 34 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 32 | 9 | 4 | 19 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 31 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 33 | 7 | 5 | 21 | 31 | 60 | -29 | 26 |
| 17 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 33 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 22 |
| 18 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 23 | 58 | -35 | 20 |
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