SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 39.55%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 33.83% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.46%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 0-1 (9.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chaves would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chaves | Draw | Gil Vicente |
39.55% ( -0.31) | 26.62% ( 0.09) | 33.83% ( 0.22) |
| Both teams to score 51.87% ( -0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.96% ( -0.33) | 53.04% ( 0.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.37% ( -0.28) | 74.63% ( 0.28) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.73% ( -0.32) | 26.27% ( 0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.61% ( -0.43) | 61.38% ( 0.44) |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.35% ( -0.02) | 29.65% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.3% ( -0.03) | 65.7% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chaves | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 1-0 @ 10.41% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 8.46% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 6.96% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 3.77% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 3.1% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.29% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.26% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 1.04% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.26% Total : 39.55% | 1-1 @ 12.65% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 7.79% ( 0.1)2-2 @ 5.14% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.61% | 0-1 @ 9.47% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 7.69% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 5.76% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 3.12% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.33% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 2.08% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 0.95% ( 0)Other @ 2.43% Total : 33.83% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Benfica | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Braga | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Porto | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | BoavistaBoavista | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 15 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | PortimonensePortimonense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
| 12 | SC FarenseFarense | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | ChavesChaves | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 7 |
| 14 | AroucaArouca | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Vizela | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Estrela Amadora | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Rio AveRio Ave | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 4 |
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