SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 68.37%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 12.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.74%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.9%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 0-1 (4.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-1 win for Sporting Lisbon in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Sporting Lisbon.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Gil Vicente |
68.37% ( 2.08) | 18.74% ( -0.62) | 12.89% ( -1.45) |
| Both teams to score 49.96% ( -1.95) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.94% ( -0.5) | 42.05% ( 0.5) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.54% ( -0.5) | 64.46% ( 0.51) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.74% ( 0.42) | 11.26% ( -0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 64.15% ( 0.89) | 35.85% ( -0.89) |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.3% ( -2.47) | 43.7% ( 2.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 20.12% ( -2.12) | 79.87% ( 2.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 2-0 @ 11.73% ( 0.64) 1-0 @ 10.74% ( 0.41)2-1 @ 9.71% ( -0.12)3-0 @ 8.54% ( 0.6)3-1 @ 7.07% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 4.66% ( 0.4)4-1 @ 3.86% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 2.93% ( -0.19)5-0 @ 2.04% ( 0.2)5-1 @ 1.69% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 1.6% ( -0.08)Other @ 3.79% Total : 68.36% | 1-1 @ 8.9% ( -0.26) 0-0 @ 4.92% ( 0.11)2-2 @ 4.02% ( -0.34)Other @ 0.91% Total : 18.74% | 0-1 @ 4.07% ( -0.19) 1-2 @ 3.68% ( -0.38)0-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.2)2-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.18)1-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.18)Other @ 1.32% Total : 12.89% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 26 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 67 | 14 | 53 | 71 |
| 2 | Porto | 26 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 56 | 17 | 39 | 61 |
| 3 | Braga | 26 | 19 | 2 | 5 | 56 | 23 | 33 | 59 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 26 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 52 | 23 | 29 | 54 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 30 | 32 | -2 | 41 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 41 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 38 |
| 8 | Vizela | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 35 |
| 9 | Rio AveRio Ave | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 33 |
| 10 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 26 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 33 |
| 11 | ChavesChaves | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 32 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 30 | 44 | -14 | 30 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 30 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 26 | 8 | 2 | 16 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 26 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 22 | 39 | -17 | 25 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 26 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 21 | 49 | -28 | 19 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 17 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 26 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 17 | 41 | -24 | 15 |
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