SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 11 | Arouca | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Vizela | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Braga | 4 | 14 | 10 |
| 3 | Porto | 4 | 6 | 9 |
| 4 | Portimonense | 4 | 4 | 9 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 56.26%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 20.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.87%) and 0-2 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.88%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 1-0 (6%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Porto |
20.8% ( -1) | 22.94% ( -0.41) | 56.26% ( 1.41) |
| Both teams to score 53.13% ( -0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.54% ( 0.56) | 46.46% ( -0.56) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.26% ( 0.52) | 68.74% ( -0.52) |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.49% ( -0.67) | 36.51% ( 0.67) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.71% ( -0.68) | 73.3% ( 0.68) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.68% ( 0.7) | 16.32% ( -0.7) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 54.1% ( 1.25) | 45.9% ( -1.25) |
| Score Analysis |
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Porto |
| 1-0 @ 6% ( -0.26) 2-1 @ 5.48% ( -0.2)2-0 @ 3.03% ( -0.19)3-1 @ 1.84% ( -0.1)3-2 @ 1.67% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.08)Other @ 1.76% Total : 20.8% | 1-1 @ 10.88% ( -0.2) 0-0 @ 5.96% ( -0.14)2-2 @ 4.97% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 1.01% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 22.94% | 0-1 @ 10.8% 1-2 @ 9.87% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 9.79% ( 0.23)1-3 @ 5.96% ( 0.17)0-3 @ 5.92% ( 0.27)2-3 @ 3% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 2.7% ( 0.14)0-4 @ 2.68% ( 0.18)2-4 @ 1.36% ( 0.04)1-5 @ 0.98% ( 0.07)0-5 @ 0.97% ( 0.09)Other @ 2.23% Total : 56.26% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 22 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 56 | 13 | 43 | 59 |
| 2 | Porto | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 49 | 14 | 35 | 51 |
| 3 | Braga | 21 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 47 | 20 | 27 | 49 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 21 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 43 | 23 | 20 | 41 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 34 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 33 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 32 |
| 8 | BoavistaBoavista | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 27 | 35 | -8 | 29 |
| 9 | Rio AveRio Ave | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 27 |
| 10 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 22 | 29 | -7 | 27 |
| 11 | Vizela | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 26 |
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 26 |
| 13 | ChavesChaves | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 26 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 26 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 19 | 29 | -10 | 22 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 17 | 40 | -23 | 16 |
| 17 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 16 | 32 | -16 | 15 |
| 18 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 22 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 40 | -24 | 12 |
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