SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Estoril Praia | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Sporting Lisbon | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Arouca | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Porto | 5 | 8 | 12 |
| 4 | Portimonense | 5 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Vitoria de Guimaraes | 6 | 0 | 9 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 71.38%. A draw had a probability of 17.4% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 11.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.32%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.23%), while for a Portimonense win it was 0-1 (3.56%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Portimonense |
71.38% ( -0.01) | 17.36% ( -0.03) | 11.25% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 49.5% ( 0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.06% ( 0.27) | 39.93% ( -0.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.7% ( 0.28) | 62.29% ( -0.28) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.08% ( 0.07) | 9.91% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 67.17% ( 0.16) | 32.83% ( -0.15) |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.94% ( 0.26) | 45.06% ( -0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 19.02% ( 0.2) | 80.98% ( -0.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Portimonense |
| 2-0 @ 11.93% ( -0.07) 1-0 @ 10.32% ( -0.1)2-1 @ 9.51% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 9.19% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 7.33% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 5.31% ( -0)4-1 @ 4.23% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.92% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 2.46% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.96% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.69% ( 0.02)6-0 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.59% Total : 71.38% | 1-1 @ 8.23% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 4.47% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 3.79% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.87% Total : 17.36% | 0-1 @ 3.56% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 3.28% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 1.42% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.01% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.98% Total : 11.25% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 23 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 58 | 13 | 45 | 62 |
| 2 | Porto | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 49 | 14 | 35 | 51 |
| 3 | Braga | 22 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 48 | 22 | 26 | 49 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 23 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 46 | 23 | 23 | 47 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 37 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 34 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 32 |
| 8 | BoavistaBoavista | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 35 | -8 | 30 |
| 9 | Vizela | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 26 | 23 | 3 | 29 |
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 27 |
| 11 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 27 |
| 12 | ChavesChaves | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 26 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 23 | 8 | 2 | 13 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 26 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 26 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 23 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 22 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 17 | 40 | -23 | 16 |
| 17 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 16 | 32 | -16 | 15 |
| 18 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 22 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 40 | -24 | 12 |
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