SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Braga | 5 | 15 | 13 |
| 3 | Porto | 5 | 8 | 12 |
| 4 | Portimonense | 5 | 5 | 12 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Boavista | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 7 | Chaves | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 5 | 2 | 8 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 80.1%. A draw had a probability of 13% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 6.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.05%) and 1-0 (8.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.14%), while for a Chaves win it was 0-1 (2.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-0 win for Porto in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Porto.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Chaves |
80.1% ( -0.02) | 12.98% ( 0.02) | 6.9% ( 0) |
| Both teams to score 46.81% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.65% ( -0.07) | 33.35% ( 0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.87% ( -0.08) | 55.12% ( 0.08) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.53% ( -0.02) | 6.47% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 75.82% ( -0.05) | 24.18% ( 0.05) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.05% ( -0.04) | 49.95% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 15.37% ( -0.03) | 84.62% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Porto | Draw | Chaves |
| 2-0 @ 12.11% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 11.05% ( 0.01)1-0 @ 8.85% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 8.41% ( 0)3-1 @ 7.68% ( -0)4-0 @ 7.57% ( -0)4-1 @ 5.25% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 4.15% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 2.88% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.66% ( -0)6-0 @ 1.89% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.82% ( -0)6-1 @ 1.31% ( -0.01)5-2 @ 1% ( -0)Other @ 3.47% Total : 80.1% | 1-1 @ 6.14% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 3.23% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 2.92% ( -0)Other @ 0.7% Total : 12.98% | 0-1 @ 2.24% ( 0) 1-2 @ 2.13% Other @ 2.53% Total : 6.91% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 23 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 58 | 13 | 45 | 62 |
| 2 | Porto | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 49 | 14 | 35 | 51 |
| 3 | Braga | 22 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 48 | 22 | 26 | 49 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 23 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 46 | 23 | 23 | 47 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 37 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 34 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 32 |
| 8 | BoavistaBoavista | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 35 | -8 | 30 |
| 9 | Vizela | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 26 | 23 | 3 | 29 |
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 27 |
| 11 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 27 |
| 12 | ChavesChaves | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 26 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 23 | 8 | 2 | 13 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 26 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 26 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 23 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 22 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 17 | 40 | -23 | 16 |
| 17 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 16 | 32 | -16 | 15 |
| 18 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 22 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 40 | -24 | 12 |
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