SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 45.51%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 26.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.11%) and 2-1 (8.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.93%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 0-1 (9.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Chaves | Draw | Estoril Praia |
45.51% ( 0.5) | 27.97% ( -0.1) | 26.52% ( -0.4) |
| Both teams to score 44.69% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.39% ( 0.13) | 60.6% ( -0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.3% ( 0.1) | 80.69% ( -0.1) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.37% ( 0.31) | 26.62% ( -0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.14% ( 0.41) | 61.86% ( -0.41) |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.9% ( -0.27) | 39.1% ( 0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.18% ( -0.25) | 75.81% ( 0.25) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chaves | Draw | Estoril Praia |
| 1-0 @ 13.77% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 9.11% ( 0.12)2-1 @ 8.56% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 4.02% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 3.78% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 1.77% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.33% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.25% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.91% Total : 45.5% | 1-1 @ 12.93% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 10.4% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 4.02% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.6% Total : 27.95% | 0-1 @ 9.78% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 6.08% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 4.59% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 1.9% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.26% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.49% Total : 26.52% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 61 | 13 | 48 | 65 |
| 2 | Porto | 24 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 55 | 17 | 38 | 57 |
| 3 | Braga | 24 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 55 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 49 | 23 | 26 | 50 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 40 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 37 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 35 |
| 8 | Rio AveRio Ave | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 33 |
| 9 | Vizela | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 32 |
| 10 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 30 |
| 11 | BoavistaBoavista | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 30 |
| 12 | ChavesChaves | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 29 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 29 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 18 | 32 | -14 | 26 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 24 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 22 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 24 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 17 | 45 | -28 | 16 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 24 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 18 | 42 | -24 | 15 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 25 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 38 | -21 | 15 |
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