SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Arouca | 6 | -9 | 7 |
| 13 | Vizela | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 6 | -3 | 5 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Gil Vicente | 6 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Estoril Praia | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | Arouca | 6 | -9 | 7 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vizela win with a probability of 41.24%. A win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 30.56% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vizela win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.25%) and 2-0 (7.95%). The likeliest Estoril Praia win was 0-1 (10.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Vizela | Draw | Estoril Praia |
41.24% ( 0.01) | 28.2% ( 0) | 30.56% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 46.2% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.25% ( -0.01) | 59.76% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.95% ( -0.01) | 80.05% ( 0.01) |
| Vizela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.5% ( -0) | 28.5% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 35.73% ( -0) | 64.27% ( 0) |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.62% ( -0.01) | 35.38% ( 0.01) |
