SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 77.74%. A draw had a probability of 13.3% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (8.8%) and 2-1 (8.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.78%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 1-2 (2.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-1 win for Benfica in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Benfica.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Gil Vicente |
77.74% ( -0.01) | 13.25% ( 0) | 9% ( 0) |
| Both teams to score 57.41% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 73.98% ( -0.01) | 26.02% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 53.76% ( -0.01) | 46.24% ( 0.01) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.61% ( -0) | 5.39% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 78.87% ( -0.01) | 21.13% ( 0.01) |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.68% | 39.32% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.98% ( 0) | 76.02% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 2-0 @ 9.04% ( 0) 3-0 @ 8.8% 2-1 @ 8.44% ( 0)3-1 @ 8.21% 4-0 @ 6.43% ( -0)1-0 @ 6.19% ( 0)4-1 @ 6% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.83% 5-0 @ 3.75% ( -0)5-1 @ 3.5% ( -0)4-2 @ 2.8% 6-0 @ 1.83% ( -0)6-1 @ 1.71% ( -0)5-2 @ 1.64% Other @ 5.58% Total : 77.74% | 1-1 @ 5.78% ( 0) 2-2 @ 3.94% 0-0 @ 2.12% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.19% Other @ 0.23% Total : 13.25% | 1-2 @ 2.7% ( 0) 0-1 @ 1.98% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.23% 0-2 @ 0.92% ( 0)Other @ 2.18% Total : 9% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 29 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 69 | 17 | 52 | 74 |
| 2 | Porto | 29 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 62 | 19 | 43 | 70 |
| 3 | Braga | 29 | 22 | 2 | 5 | 62 | 24 | 38 | 68 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 29 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 59 | 27 | 32 | 61 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 48 |
| 6 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 29 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 42 |
| 7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 29 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 27 | 35 | -8 | 41 |
| 8 | Vizela | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 32 | 30 | 2 | 39 |
| 9 | Casa Pia | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 39 |
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 38 |
| 11 | ChavesChaves | 29 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 37 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 37 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 29 | 10 | 3 | 16 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 33 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 29 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 31 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 29 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 23 | 45 | -22 | 25 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 29 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 26 | 54 | -28 | 22 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 29 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 21 | 51 | -30 | 17 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 29 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 19 | 45 | -26 | 16 |
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