SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 73.76%. A draw had a probability of 15.6% and a win for Rio Ave had a probability of 10.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 3-0 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.2%), while for a Rio Ave win it was 1-2 (3.16%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Rio Ave |
73.76% ( -0.08) | 15.61% ( 0.05) | 10.62% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 53.94% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.86% ( -0.17) | 33.14% ( 0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.11% ( -0.19) | 54.89% ( 0.19) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.31% ( -0.05) | 7.69% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 72.59% ( -0.14) | 27.41% ( 0.14) |
| Rio Ave Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.43% ( -0.06) | 41.57% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 21.94% ( -0.06) | 78.06% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Rio Ave |
| 2-0 @ 10.51% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.23% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 8.99% ( 0)1-0 @ 8.2% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 7.9% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 5.77% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 5.06% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 3.47% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 2.96% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 2.6% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 2.22% ( -0.01)6-0 @ 1.27% ( -0.01)5-2 @ 1.14% ( -0.01)6-1 @ 1.11% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.33% Total : 73.76% | 1-1 @ 7.2% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.05% ( -0)0-0 @ 3.2% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.01% ( -0)Other @ 0.16% Total : 15.62% | 1-2 @ 3.16% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 2.81% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 1.23% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.19% ( -0)1-3 @ 0.92% Other @ 1.31% Total : 10.62% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 17 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 17 | 23 | 43 |
| 2 | Benfica | 17 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 35 | 11 | 24 | 42 |
| 3 | Porto | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 35 |
| 4 | Braga | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 40 | 23 | 17 | 33 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 18 | 8 | 30 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 29 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 22 |
| 8 | SC FarenseFarense | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 20 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Estrela Amadora | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 18 |
| 12 | PortimonensePortimonense | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 36 | -18 | 18 |
| 13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | AroucaArouca | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 16 |
| 15 | Gil Vicente | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 16 |
| 16 | Rio AveRio Ave | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 15 |
| 17 | Vizela | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 13 |
| 18 | ChavesChaves | 17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 11 |
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