SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Vizela | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Rio Ave | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Porto | 6 | 11 | 15 |
| 3 | Braga | 5 | 15 | 13 |
| 4 | Portimonense | 6 | 1 | 12 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 54.59%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Rio Ave had a probability of 21.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.08%) and 1-2 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.44%), while for a Rio Ave win it was 1-0 (6.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Rio Ave | Draw | Braga |
21.34% ( 0.01) | 24.07% ( -0.06) | 54.59% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 50.41% ( 0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.53% ( 0.25) | 50.46% ( -0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.61% ( 0.22) | 72.39% ( -0.22) |
| Rio Ave Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.76% ( 0.15) | 38.23% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.01% ( 0.15) | 74.99% ( -0.14) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.62% ( 0.11) | 18.38% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.48% ( 0.19) | 49.52% ( -0.19) |
| Score Analysis |
| Rio Ave | Draw | Braga |
| 1-0 @ 6.76% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 5.5% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 3.25% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 1.76% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.49% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.04% ( 0)Other @ 1.54% Total : 21.34% | 1-1 @ 11.44% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 7.03% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 4.66% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.94% Total : 24.06% | 0-1 @ 11.9% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 10.08% ( -0.03)1-2 @ 9.69% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 5.69% ( 0)1-3 @ 5.47% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 2.63% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 2.41% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 2.32% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 1.11% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.27% Total : 54.58% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Benfica | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Braga | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Porto | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | BoavistaBoavista | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 15 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | PortimonensePortimonense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
| 12 | SC FarenseFarense | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | ChavesChaves | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 7 |
| 14 | AroucaArouca | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Vizela | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Estrela Amadora | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Rio AveRio Ave | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 4 |
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