SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 74.11%. A draw had a probability of 16% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 9.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.73%) and 3-0 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.57%), while for a Chaves win it was 0-1 (3.09%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Chaves |
74.11% ( -0.18) | 16% ( 0.1) | 9.89% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 49.38% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.53% ( -0.23) | 37.46% ( 0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.31% ( -0.25) | 59.69% ( 0.25) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.35% ( -0.1) | 8.65% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 70.18% ( -0.24) | 29.82% ( 0.24) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.05% ( -0.01) | 45.94% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 18.32% ( -0.01) | 81.68% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Chaves |
| 2-0 @ 11.9% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 9.73% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 9.71% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 9.26% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 7.55% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 5.94% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 4.62% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.94% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 2.91% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 2.26% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.8% ( -0.01)6-0 @ 1.19% ( -0.02)6-1 @ 0.92% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.37% Total : 74.1% | 1-1 @ 7.57% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 3.97% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 3.6% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.86% Total : 16% | 0-1 @ 3.09% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 2.94% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 1.2% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 0.93% ( 0)Other @ 1.72% Total : 9.89% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 13 | 25 |
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 25 |
| 3 | Porto | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 22 |
| 4 | Braga | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 18 | 11 | 20 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 19 |
| 6 | BoavistaBoavista | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Estrela Amadora | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 |
| 10 | PortimonensePortimonense | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 11 |
| 11 | Gil Vicente | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 21 | 1 | 10 |
| 12 | SC FarenseFarense | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 10 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | ChavesChaves | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 28 | -16 | 7 |
| 16 | AroucaArouca | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Vizela | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 6 |
| 18 | Rio AveRio Ave | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 5 |
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