SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 76.32%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 8.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (10.56%) and 0-1 (10.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.23%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 1-0 (2.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Benfica |
8.49% ( -0.52) | 15.2% ( -0.52) | 76.32% ( 1.04) |
| Both teams to score 46.17% ( -0.39) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.6% ( 0.74) | 38.4% ( -0.73) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.31% ( 0.77) | 60.69% ( -0.77) |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.39% ( -0.65) | 49.61% ( 0.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 15.62% ( -0.46) | 84.38% ( 0.47) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.62% ( 0.41) | 8.38% ( -0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 70.84% ( 1.01) | 29.16% ( -1.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Benfica |
| 1-0 @ 2.91% ( -0.16) 2-1 @ 2.53% ( -0.14)2-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.08)Other @ 2.02% Total : 8.49% | 1-1 @ 7.23% ( -0.25) 0-0 @ 4.16% ( -0.15)2-2 @ 3.14% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.68% Total : 15.2% | 0-2 @ 12.77% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 10.56% ( 0.25)0-1 @ 10.3% ( -0.16)1-2 @ 8.96% ( -0.13)1-3 @ 7.4% ( 0.04)0-4 @ 6.55% ( 0.28)1-4 @ 4.59% ( 0.11)0-5 @ 3.25% ( 0.2)2-3 @ 2.6% ( -0.03)1-5 @ 2.28% ( 0.1)2-4 @ 1.61% ( 0.01)0-6 @ 1.34% ( 0.11)1-6 @ 0.94% ( 0.06)Other @ 3.17% Total : 76.3% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Benfica | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Braga | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Porto | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | BoavistaBoavista | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 15 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | PortimonensePortimonense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
| 12 | SC FarenseFarense | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | ChavesChaves | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 7 |
| 14 | AroucaArouca | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Vizela | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Estrela Amadora | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Rio AveRio Ave | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 4 |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
