SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 58.95%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 18.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.03%) and 1-2 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.86%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 1-0 (6.04%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 11% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Braga |
18.19% ( 0.12) | 22.87% ( 0.26) | 58.95% ( -0.38) |
| Both teams to score 49.08% ( -0.59) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.31% ( -0.9) | 49.68% ( 0.9) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.3% ( -0.81) | 71.7% ( 0.81) |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.79% ( -0.39) | 41.2% ( 0.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 22.26% ( -0.35) | 77.74% ( 0.34) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.47% ( -0.45) | 16.53% ( 0.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 53.72% ( -0.81) | 46.27% ( 0.8) |
| Score Analysis |
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Braga |
| 1-0 @ 6.04% ( 0.16) 2-1 @ 4.82% ( 0)2-0 @ 2.68% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 1.42% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.28% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.95% Total : 18.19% | 1-1 @ 10.86% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 6.81% ( 0.25)2-2 @ 4.34% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.85% Total : 22.86% | 0-1 @ 12.25% ( 0.26) 0-2 @ 11.03% ( 0.07)1-2 @ 9.78% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 6.62% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 5.87% ( -0.11)0-4 @ 2.98% ( -0.07)1-4 @ 2.64% ( -0.09)2-3 @ 2.6% ( -0.08)2-4 @ 1.17% ( -0.05)0-5 @ 1.07% ( -0.04)1-5 @ 0.95% ( -0.05)Other @ 1.96% Total : 58.93% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 28 |
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 11 | 12 | 28 |
| 3 | Porto | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | Braga | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 18 | 12 | 23 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 22 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | SC FarenseFarense | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 16 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 16 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | PortimonensePortimonense | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 14 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 | Estrela Amadora | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 11 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 | Vizela | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 10 |
| 16 | Rio AveRio Ave | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 | ChavesChaves | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 31 | -16 | 10 |
| 18 | AroucaArouca | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 6 |
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