SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 51.67%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 22.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.87%) and 2-1 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.01%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (7.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Arouca |
51.67% ( -0.08) | 25.35% ( 0.02) | 22.97% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 48.65% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.18% ( -0.03) | 53.82% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.71% ( -0.03) | 75.29% ( 0.02) |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.15% ( -0.05) | 20.84% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.47% ( -0.07) | 53.52% ( 0.07) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.46% ( 0.03) | 38.53% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.72% ( 0.04) | 75.27% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 12.59% 2-0 @ 9.87% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 9.42% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 5.16% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 4.92% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.35% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.02% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.93% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 0.92% ( -0)Other @ 2.48% Total : 51.67% | 1-1 @ 12.01% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.03% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.49% ( 0)Other @ 0.82% Total : 25.35% | 0-1 @ 7.66% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 5.73% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 3.65% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.82% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.43% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.16% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.52% Total : 22.97% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 25 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 66 | 14 | 52 | 68 |
| 2 | Porto | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 55 | 17 | 38 | 58 |
| 3 | Braga | 25 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 56 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 49 | 23 | 26 | 50 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 40 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 38 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 38 |
| 8 | Rio AveRio Ave | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 33 |
| 9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 25 | 10 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 32 | -7 | 33 |
| 10 | Vizela | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 32 |
| 11 | ChavesChaves | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 32 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 28 | 40 | -12 | 30 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 29 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 18 | 32 | -14 | 26 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 21 | 39 | -18 | 22 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 47 | -30 | 16 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 16 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 25 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 38 | -21 | 15 |
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