SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 46.64%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 26.18%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.14%) and 2-1 (8.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.73%), while for a Portimonense win it was 0-1 (9.17%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Portimonense |
46.64% ( 0.49) | 27.19% ( -0.13) | 26.18% ( -0.36) |
| Both teams to score 46.52% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.87% ( 0.25) | 58.13% ( -0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.21% ( 0.19) | 78.79% ( -0.19) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.06% ( 0.35) | 24.94% ( -0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.43% ( 0.48) | 59.57% ( -0.49) |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.98% ( -0.17) | 38.02% ( 0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.21% ( -0.17) | 74.79% ( 0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Portimonense |
| 1-0 @ 13.16% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.14% ( 0.1)2-1 @ 8.84% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 4.23% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 4.09% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 1.98% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.47% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.42% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.29% Total : 46.63% | 1-1 @ 12.73% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 9.48% ( -0.09)2-2 @ 4.28% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.7% Total : 27.18% | 0-1 @ 9.17% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 6.16% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 4.43% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.63% Total : 26.18% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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