SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 49.87%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 24.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.4%) and 2-0 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.06%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (7.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Chaves | Draw | Arouca |
49.87% ( 1.06) | 25.38% ( -0.25) | 24.75% ( -0.81) |
| Both teams to score 50.44% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.58% ( 0.36) | 52.42% ( -0.36) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.9% ( 0.31) | 74.1% ( -0.31) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.96% ( 0.6) | 21.04% ( -0.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.17% ( 0.93) | 53.83% ( -0.93) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.87% ( -0.5) | 36.12% ( 0.5) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.09% ( -0.52) | 72.91% ( 0.52) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chaves | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 11.84% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.4% ( 0.08)2-0 @ 9.23% ( 0.2)3-1 @ 4.89% ( 0.13)3-0 @ 4.8% ( 0.19)3-2 @ 2.49% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.9% ( 0.08)4-0 @ 1.87% ( 0.11)4-2 @ 0.97% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.47% Total : 49.86% | 1-1 @ 12.06% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 7.6% ( -0.11)2-2 @ 4.79% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.93% Total : 25.38% | 0-1 @ 7.74% ( -0.22) 1-2 @ 6.14% ( -0.15)0-2 @ 3.94% ( -0.17)1-3 @ 2.08% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 1.63% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.08)Other @ 1.89% Total : 24.75% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 32 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 77 | 18 | 59 | 83 |
| 2 | Porto | 32 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 66 | 20 | 46 | 79 |
| 3 | Braga | 32 | 24 | 2 | 6 | 71 | 29 | 42 | 74 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 67 | 29 | 38 | 70 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 51 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 15 | 5 | 12 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 50 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 32 | 13 | 4 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 43 |
| 9 | Vizela | 33 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 40 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 40 |
| 11 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 10 | 4 | 19 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 34 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 32 | 9 | 4 | 19 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 31 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 33 | 7 | 5 | 21 | 31 | 60 | -29 | 26 |
| 17 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 33 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 22 |
| 18 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 23 | 58 | -35 | 20 |
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