SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 41.7%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 31.65% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (7.49%). The likeliest Chaves win was 0-1 (9.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Chaves |
41.7% ( 0.39) | 26.64% ( -0.4) | 31.65% ( 0) |
| Both teams to score 51.16% ( 1.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.34% ( 1.55) | 53.66% ( -1.55) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.85% ( 1.29) | 75.15% ( -1.3) |
| Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.59% ( 0.91) | 25.4% ( -0.92) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.78% ( 1.24) | 60.21% ( -1.24) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.59% ( 0.8) | 31.41% ( -0.8) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.21% ( 0.91) | 67.78% ( -0.92) |
| Score Analysis |
| Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Chaves |
| 1-0 @ 10.93% ( -0.38) 2-1 @ 8.68% ( 0.12)2-0 @ 7.49% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 3.96% ( 0.16)3-0 @ 3.42% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 2.29% ( 0.14)4-1 @ 1.36% ( 0.09)4-0 @ 1.17% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.39% Total : 41.7% | 1-1 @ 12.66% ( -0.16) 0-0 @ 7.98% ( -0.5)2-2 @ 5.02% ( 0.18)Other @ 0.98% Total : 26.64% | 0-1 @ 9.24% ( -0.36) 1-2 @ 7.33% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 5.35% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 2.83% ( 0.09)0-3 @ 2.07% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.94% ( 0.11)Other @ 2.9% Total : 31.65% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 31 | 26 | 2 | 3 | 72 | 17 | 55 | 80 |
| 2 | Porto | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 64 | 19 | 45 | 76 |
| 3 | Braga | 31 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 66 | 26 | 40 | 71 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 21 | 4 | 6 | 65 | 28 | 37 | 67 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 48 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 47 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 32 | 13 | 4 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 43 |
| 9 | Vizela | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 40 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 40 |
| 11 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 10 | 4 | 17 | 24 | 40 | -16 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 34 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 28 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 31 | 6 | 5 | 20 | 29 | 58 | -29 | 23 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 23 | 58 | -35 | 20 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 31 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 22 | 50 | -28 | 19 |
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