SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 36.63%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 35.35% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.82%) and 0-2 (6.73%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (11.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Estoril Praia |
35.35% ( -0.04) | 28.02% ( -0.08) | 36.63% ( 0.12) |
| Both teams to score 47.74% ( 0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.68% ( 0.29) | 58.32% ( -0.29) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.06% ( 0.23) | 78.94% ( -0.23) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.69% ( 0.12) | 31.31% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.33% ( 0.14) | 67.67% ( -0.14) |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.5% ( 0.22) | 30.5% ( -0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.28% ( 0.26) | 66.72% ( -0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Estoril Praia |
| 1-0 @ 11.08% ( -0.09) 2-1 @ 7.65% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 6.44% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 2.96% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 2.49% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.76% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.97% Total : 35.34% | 1-1 @ 13.16% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 9.55% ( -0.11)2-2 @ 4.54% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.76% Total : 28.01% | 0-1 @ 11.33% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 7.82% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 6.73% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.1% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 2.67% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.8% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 0.92% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.27% Total : 36.62% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 32 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 77 | 18 | 59 | 83 |
| 2 | Porto | 32 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 66 | 20 | 46 | 79 |
| 3 | Braga | 32 | 24 | 2 | 6 | 71 | 29 | 42 | 74 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 67 | 29 | 38 | 70 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 15 | 5 | 12 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 50 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 48 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 32 | 13 | 4 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 43 |
| 9 | Vizela | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 40 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 40 |
| 11 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 32 | 10 | 4 | 18 | 25 | 45 | -20 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 34 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 28 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 32 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 30 | 60 | -30 | 23 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 23 | 58 | -35 | 20 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 32 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 55 | -30 | 19 |
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