SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 77.74%. A draw had a probability of 13.8% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 8.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.76%) and 2-1 (8.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.34%), while for a Portimonense win it was 1-2 (2.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Portimonense |
77.74% ( 0) | 13.76% ( -0.02) | 8.51% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 52.38% ( 0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.24% ( 0.21) | 30.76% ( -0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.89% ( 0.25) | 52.1% ( -0.25) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.62% ( 0.04) | 6.37% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 76.08% ( 0.13) | 23.92% ( -0.13) |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.95% ( 0.2) | 44.05% ( -0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 19.83% ( 0.17) | 80.17% ( -0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Portimonense |
| 2-0 @ 10.64% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 9.76% ( -0.04)2-1 @ 8.72% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 8% ( 0.01)1-0 @ 7.73% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 6.72% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 5.51% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 3.7% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.28% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 3.03% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 2.26% ( 0.02)6-0 @ 1.7% ( 0.01)6-1 @ 1.39% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 1.24% ( 0.02)Other @ 4.04% Total : 77.74% | 1-1 @ 6.34% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 3.58% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 2.81% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.04% Total : 13.76% | 1-2 @ 2.6% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 2.3% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 0.94% Other @ 1.69% Total : 8.51% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 32 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 77 | 18 | 59 | 83 |
| 2 | Porto | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 64 | 19 | 45 | 76 |
| 3 | Braga | 31 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 66 | 26 | 40 | 71 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 21 | 4 | 6 | 65 | 28 | 37 | 67 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 48 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 47 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 32 | 13 | 4 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 43 |
| 9 | Vizela | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 40 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 40 |
| 11 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 32 | 10 | 4 | 18 | 25 | 45 | -20 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 34 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 28 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 31 | 6 | 5 | 20 | 29 | 58 | -29 | 23 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 23 | 58 | -35 | 20 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 31 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 22 | 50 | -28 | 19 |
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